The airline sector joined hotels in commenting that a "significant change" in traveller booking windows was making planning difficult.
The International Air Transport Association said that the behaviour remained prevalent as travellers were “concerned about unexpected changes in travel restrictions and quarantine requirements”.
IATA’s statement followed a study from Skyscanner, which found that travellers were looking to get away in much shorter timeframes with booking windows of under one week more popular this year than ever before (12% increase in share of searches compared to 2019).
The findings were echoed in the hotel sector, with Accor chairman & CEO telling analysts at the group’s first-half earnings call: “The one thing to notice, which is extraordinarily important, which tells you why it is very difficult for us to project ourselves in the future - and it doesn't matter which country - [is that] 60% of all the bookings made today have been made with less than five days notice.
“So on Monday, people decide what they would do the following weekend or the following week. That number was exactly double last year at the same pace - 2019 was at least 10 days notice.”
Ally Northfield, managing director, Revenue by Design, told us: “We’re seeing booking windows of three to four days, but the pickup we’re seeing when people feel confident to travel is great - we can then see the same lost to cancellations when circumstances change.
“Revenue managers are being asked to pivot quickly. It’s like trying to manage an invisible imposter that’s throwing different things at you all the time. You need a different strategy every week and communicating changes to the rest of the team can be difficult.”
Ongoing uncertainty was hitting the airline sector. IATA said that forward bookings were looking weaker for the fourth quarter than the third, reporting that 10 days before the start of the third quarter bookings were c. 70% lower compared to the previous year and followed an upward trend over the course of quarter. However, 10 days before the start of the fourth quarter, bookings were on average 78% below their level a year ago for the (Northern) winter quarter.
IATA said: “The fall in forward bookings amidst the ongoing uncertainty indicates that the gradual recovery seen over the third quarter in air travel could falter in the fourth quarter.”
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general & CEO, has called for systematic Covid-19 testing of all travellers before departure. He said: “This will give governments the confidence to open their borders without complicated risk models that see constant changes in the rules imposed on travel. Testing all passengers will give people back their freedom to travel with confidence. And that will put millions of people back to work
“Safety is aviation’s top priority. We are the safest form of transport because we work together as an industry with governments to implement global standards. With the economic cost associated with border closures rising daily and a second-wave of infections taking hold, the aviation industry must call on this expertise to unite with governments and medical testing providers to find a rapid, accurate, affordable, easy-to-operate, and scalable testing solution that will enable the world to safely re-connect and recover.”
Insight: The pandemic has thrown up a number of challenges to the hotel sector, not all of them as obvious as lockdowns and sanitising. The market has become increasingly wary of the race to the rate bottom, something which becomes more likely as more hotels reopen and compete for what is still an anaemic volume of guests.
The natural protection from horrifying rate drops is a revenue management strategy, but, with revenue managers often furloughed during the first lockdown, there are few strategies to go around. With many hotels not open, those looking to save money wonder at their worth. But as booking windows narrow to the point where planning becomes close to impossible, you need your revenue manager.
What the whole of travel needs is an idea of where the pandemic is heading - and how to travel during it. The winter will not be kind, but the virus is now a known enemy. If rigorous testing can be set up, travel can be managed and those booking windows might open up again.