Traveller confidence will be further undermined by lack of unified approach in UK quarantine measures, according to GlobalData.
The comments came after Scotland and Wales imposed quarantine measures on arrivals from mainland Portugal and some Greek islands, while England did not.
Johanna Bonhill-Smith, travel & tourism analyst, GlobalData, said: “The idea of a ‘swift recovery’ of tourism post Covid-19 has been thwarted. Ongoing fluidity of the UK’s air bridges, coupled with economic constraints and general anxiety, means that the UK outbound market will be decimated in 2020 and will likely be further affected in 2021.
“According to GlobalData’s latest consumer recovery survey, 45% of UK travellers are ‘extremely concerned’ about their current economic situation. Holidays are a non-essential so as budgets tighten and economic concerns grow, holidays won’t be a priority for many.
“The same survey found that anxiety is currently the most common feeling amongst UK consumers. Venturing on holiday is an attempt to relax and unwind, but the prospect of having to scramble home to avoid blanket quarantine measures will have the opposite effect, deterring them from booking.
“The UK government has consistently been criticised for its approach to handling Covid-19, including most recently the blanket quarantine policies. With Wales and Scotland now introducing their own measures for quarantine, we are witnessing a lack of a unified approach, which will further add to the confusion and anxiety regarding travel in 2020.
“German and Italian governments have proposed that European Union member states should cooperate on monitoring tourists through mutual Covid-19 checks on both sides to decrease the infection. Until a vaccine is put in place, a policy such as this could be an effective and efficient way to manage risks, ensuring travel can continue without additional stress.
“If the ‘quarantine roulette’ persists and the UK continues to operate a disjointed approach, this will only heighten consumer concerns over travel plans, likely prolonging travel recovery.”
Commenting on the regional variance, transport secretary Grant Shapps said: “You are quite accustomed to seeing, for example, Scotland do one thing and say you can meet with so many people and Wales do another and so on and so forth.
“The travel corridors are similar to that and I do realise that it creates confusion for people not to have a single rule but we do have this devolved approach throughout the UK. I can only be responsible for the English part of that.”
By Monday 7th September, Shapps was able to announce a regional approach to quarantine, telling the House of Commons: “For the first time we have the data to add and remove specific islands from quarantine while still providing maximum protection to the UK public.” He then announced that seven Greek islands would be removed from the safe list at 4am on Wednesday.
Matthew Fell, CBI Chief UK policy director, said: “Quarantining has been necessary to help contain the virus, but it is a blunt instrument that has damaging effects on trade and tourism alike.
“The move to regional travel corridors is a positive step towards what must be a more targeted approach. Industry and government must continue to work together on vital next steps, such as the introduction of testing at airports as a genuine alternative to lengthy quarantine periods.”
Shapps said that testing would not replace the quarantine, despite airline companies pushing for change to the regime.
Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said: "Testing is the lifeline that the U.K.'s aviation sector needs to get back on its feet. We've put some of the most cutting-edge rapid testing technologies into action at Heathrow to see which offers the best solution. If we can find a test that is accurate, gets a result within a matter of minutes, is cost-effective, and gets the Government green light, we could have the potential to introduce wide-scale testing at the airport.”
Insight: The government in England is at risk of being left behind by Europe and by Scotland and Wales in its approach to the quarantine, as the other members of the union start to look at areas of a country, rather than the whole swathe, when it comes to quarantine.
Shapps continued to repeat the party line on how testing was more complicated than one might think, while surveys continued to show that travellers would be happy to pay for tests, happy to quarantine while the results came in, even happy to take another test five times later, just to get back on the move.
The split between England and the other countries in the union is not the only split. As the schools go back in the UK, people are slowly considering part-time returns to the office and are shocked by what they see in the city centres - ie nothing. This picture is not replicated in mainland Europe, where footfall is down, but anecdotal evidence gathered by this hack shows that it is not at zombie level. Cities such as London suffer from not having as many residents at their core as other cities, but there has also been muttering about mixed message and a lack of information. This is stifling both domestic and international trading and it will be a grim winter indeed if a more subtle approach isn’t conjured.