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Insight Comment |
Global tourism rose 4% in 2021 but was still 72% down on the pre-pandemic year of 2019, according to preliminary figures from the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).
The industry is hoping that 2022 will see an even bigger bounceback with rising rates of vaccination, combined with easing of travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination, helping to release pent up demand.
International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62% in both the third and fourth quarters compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveller confidence. Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19% and +17% respectively), but still both 63% below pre-pandemic levels.
The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured in tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at $1.9 trillion, above the $1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic value of $3.5 trillion.
Export revenues from international tourism could exceed $700 billion in 2021, a small improvement over 2020 due to higher spending per trip, but less than half the $1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts, most tourism professionals (61%) see better prospects for 2022. While 58% expect a rebound in 2022, mostly during the third quarter, 42% point to a potential rebound only in 2023. A majority of experts (64%) now expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels only in 2024 or later, up from 45% in the September survey.