VisitBritain said that it expected to see “a small increase” in inbound tourism during the early part of the next year.
The organisation said that it did not expect inbound tourism to be back to, or even close to, normal levels by the end of 2021.
The central scenario for inbound tourism in 2021 was for 16.9 million visits, up 73% on 2020 but only 41% of the 2019 level; and £9.0bn to be spent by inbound tourists, up 59% on 2020 but only 32% of the 2019 level.
The group said: “We expect a small increase in inbound tourism during the early part of the year, although still at a very low level, followed by a recovery in the second quarter of the calendar year as restrictions start to ease, and then a gradual increase throughout the rest of the year.
“In general, European inbound markets are forecast to recover quicker than long haul markets. However, there will be variations within each of Europe and long haul. There are forecast to be 13.6 million visits from Europe in 2021, 50% of the 2019 level; and 3.3 million visits from long haul markets, 24% of the 2019 level. The value of visitor spending in 2021 is forecast to be £5.0bn and £4.0bn from European and long haul visitors respectively.”
The most crucial driver will be the progression of Covid-19 and vaccinations, both in the UK and in key inbound markets. It was assumed that in most advanced markets, vaccinations would begin in December 2020 / early 2021; that the majority within the most vulnerable groups would be able to be vaccinated in Q1 (Jan-Mar); but that it would take several months before the majority of the population is vaccinated.
It was assumed that by the end of 2021 Covid-19 will be endemic and controlled rather than pandemic. In emerging markets, the forecast assumed that the population of international travellers was vaccinated at a similar rate to the general population in advanced markets.
The market composition effect (Europe recovering faster than long haul) was likely to push down average spend per visit but it was assumed that the net effect of other factors (such as changes in average length of stay and average spend per night) wass neutral.
The forecast did not specifically model journey purpose but assumed that visits to friends and relatives were likely to recover faster than average; business trips (excluding those delivering goods) were likely to recover slower than average; and holiday visits are likely to recover at a rate in between.
There were downside risks in the early part of the year, including a no-deal Brexit. Risks to the second half of the year were judged to be to the upside – for example, if vaccinations proceed quickly and confidence in international travel returns faster than expected. However, constraints on travel, for example closed borders, might persist for several months.